When a utility cannot obtain a reading, because of access problems, a communication failure on a smart meter or a skipped route, it bills an estimate built from the account's history, a same-month-last-year figure or a class profile. Estimates are allowed under every tariff, and the next actual reading is supposed to reconcile them: the difference between estimated and actual usage is credited or charged in a true-up. The problem is that estimates are built on history that may no longer apply. A store that cut hours, a building that lost a tenant, or a site that finished an LED retrofit keeps being billed for its old load. When the meter is exchanged or the account closes, the final read on the old meter may itself be estimated, so the true-up never happens. Long strings of estimates also cause rate-period errors: a true-up spread over a rate change can price old usage at new rates, and estimated demand on demand-metered accounts can set a ratchet that lasts a year.
How it happens
- A smart meter stops communicating and the utility estimates for months without dispatching a technician.
- Access to an indoor or fenced meter is blocked, so the route reader marks it as estimated every cycle.
- The meter is exchanged and the old meter's final read is estimated, so the cumulative difference is never reconciled.
- The true-up bills the reconciled usage at rates in effect on the true-up date instead of the dates the energy was used.
- Estimated demand on a demand-metered account becomes the 12-month peak and sets a ratchet.
How to detect it
- Flag every bill marked estimated (often an E code next to the read) and count consecutive estimates per account.
- Sum estimated usage across the run and compare it to the difference between the last actual read before and the first actual read after.
- Check whether a true-up credit actually posted and at which rates.
- Compare estimated usage to operating changes such as reduced hours, vacancy or retrofits.
Evidence the utility will accept
- Every bill in the estimated run, plus the bills carrying the actual reads on both ends
- A dated photograph of the meter register, or interval data from the meter
- Meter exchange records showing the final read on the removed meter
- Records of the operational change that reduced load, such as a lease end date or retrofit completion
Recovering the overcharge
We request a corrected bill based on actual register reads or interval data, attach the dated register evidence, and ask the utility to reprice the reconciled usage at the rates in effect for each original period. Most utilities correct estimate disputes within one or two billing cycles. We also request a meter repair or access arrangement so the estimates stop.